Rodrigues-Birkett slips to third in UN straw poll as Grynspan widens lead

GEORGETOWN — Guyana's Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett slipped to third in the seventh informal straw poll for the next United Nations Secretary-General on Friday, October 30, holding at eight encouraging votes as Costa Rica's Rebeca Grynspan extended her lead with 11 and Argentina's Rafael Grossi moved ahead with nine.

The figures come from results of the confidential Security Council ballot shared by diplomatic sources. The Council does not officially publish individual results from its informal straw polls, which are used to assess support before members make a formal recommendation to the General Assembly.

What changed in the seventh round

Rodrigues-Birkett received eight "encourage" votes, six "discourage" votes and one "no opinion", matching her result in the sixth poll on October 16, when she was tied for second with Grossi.

Grynspan increased her encouraging votes from nine to 11, with four discouraging. Grossi received nine encouraging votes, four discouraging and two expressions of no opinion, up from eight encouraging votes in the previous round.

Lana Zaki Nusseibeh of the United Arab Emirates, nominated on October 21, placed fourth in her first straw poll, with seven encouraging votes, six discouraging and two no opinion.

Uganda's Olara Otunnu received four encouraging votes and 11 discouraging, Ecuador's María Fernanda Espinosa two and ten, and Ivonne A-Baki one and 14.

Questions remain over permanent-member opposition

Unlike the sixth poll, which used colour-coded ballots to distinguish votes from the Council's five permanent members, the seventh round returned to undifferentiated ballots. The latest results therefore do not reveal whether any discouraging votes came from China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom or the United States, all of which hold veto power.

In the October 16 ballot, Rodrigues-Birkett received two discouraging votes from permanent members, as did Grynspan and Grossi, according to an analysis by Security Council Report.

Straw poll votes are not formal vetoes. A Security Council recommendation requires at least nine affirmative votes and no veto from a permanent member.

CARICOM's backing for Guyana's candidate

The seventh ballot came two days after the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) reaffirmed its support for Rodrigues-Birkett, calling for the next Secretary-General to come from Latin America and the Caribbean in line with equitable geographical representation and regional rotation.

Rodrigues-Birkett, Guyana's Permanent Representative to the United Nations, was formally nominated by her government in June.

What happens next

Seven candidates took part in Friday's consultation, following the withdrawal of former Senegalese president Macky Sall and the addition of Nusseibeh. The Council must still agree on a candidate to recommend to the General Assembly.

António Guterres's current term ends on December 31, 2026, with his successor scheduled to take office on January 1, 2027.